103 worked solutions
Exam P Conditional Probability problems
Conditioning, total probability, and Bayes calculations organized around the denominator that defines the updated sample space.
Exam P topic · 44–50% syllabus weight
Diagnose six separate jobs, use a 12-session audit, then practise them across 388 independently written solutions. The published weight sets relative emphasis; it does not guarantee a fixed question count.
Six-block diagnostic
The official syllabus names models, distribution functions, moments, transformations, and insurance payments. The blocks below are an ActuaryProof study framework for locating the decision that failed.

| Block | Question before calculating | Typical failure |
|---|---|---|
| Model | Which distribution or definition fits, and why? | Choosing from a keyword without checking assumptions |
| Support | Which values of the variable are possible? | Summing or integrating outside the support |
| Tail or CDF | Which event is requested? | Using a lower tail for an upper-tail event |
| Moments | Which variable has the requested mean or variance? | Applying a formula to the wrong transformed variable |
| Transformation | How do intervals, support points, or atoms move? | Transforming values without moving their probabilities |
| Insurance payment | What do the deductible, limit, and coinsurance do to payment? | Solving for loss when the question asks for insurer payment |
12-session audit
In the first session, work with notes and record the setup. In the second, close the notes, change a parameter or boundary, and rebuild the solution. A correct answer does not close a block unless you can state the support, justify the model, and perform one independent check.
| Block | First-pass error | Changed input | Independent check | Closed? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tail or CDF | Computed F(x) instead of 1 − F(x) | Changed the threshold | Complement agrees | Yes |
| Insurance payment | Ignored the policy limit | Lowered the limit | Payment never exceeds the limit | No |
The free pages below are enough to begin the audit. For a concentrated second pass, the30-problem univariate workbook contains original practice, wrong-choice analysis, and independent checks. It cannot forecast an exam form or guarantee an outcome.
Topic orientation
Univariate Random Variables covers discrete and continuous distributions, density and distribution functions, moments, transformations, insurance payment variables, and percentiles. It is the largest Probability syllabus area and rewards quick recognition of a model’s defining identities.
The exam tests whether a candidate can respect support, normalize a model, choose the correct tail, and connect distribution parameters to the requested quantity. The pages below show those decisions before the arithmetic.
Typical failure modes
Published ledger
Each entry shows its independent calculation record and links to the official source without reproducing protected wording.
Drill one method at a time
Each guide collects the questions above that turn on the same method, with the formulas and the errors that cost marks.
103 worked solutions
Conditioning, total probability, and Bayes calculations organized around the denominator that defines the updated sample space.
83 worked solutions
Waiting-time probabilities, parameter conversions, memorylessness, moments, and insurance-payment applications.
71 worked solutions
Count probabilities, rate scaling, aggregation, thinning, and links between Poisson counts and waiting times.
62 worked solutions
Standardization, inverse percentiles, linear combinations, normal approximations, and tail control.
57 worked solutions
Second moments, transformations, sums, covariance terms, and conditional variance decompositions.
55 worked solutions
Event independence, factorization, independent trials, and the consequences independence does—and does not—justify.
50 worked solutions
Continuous and discrete uniform models, interval geometry, transformations, order statistics, and moments.
46 worked solutions
Discrete sums, continuous integrals, functions of loss, linearity, conditioning, and tail-based expectation.
Study the whole topic offline
The 388 pages above stay free. The manual collects the complete Exam P sample set in syllabus order, with the same working, the wrong-choice notes, and one new practice problem per question.
Sources and accountability
ActuaryProof publishes the independent explanations on this page. Official exam facts on this page come from the sources above; schedules, study ledgers, and checking protocols are ActuaryProof editorial tools unless stated otherwise. Read about the publisher or report a suspected error.
Primary sources last checked: August 31, 2026.