This Exam P sample reference tests Variance. The payment occurs with probability 0.48-0.05=0.43, so it is 1000 times a Bernoulli variable with parameter 0.43. Its standard deviation is 1000 times the square root of 0.43(0.57), or 495.076, which gives choice D.
Use the two cumulative probabilities to isolate the survival interval that triggers payment.
p=Pr(1≤X<5)=Pr(X<5)−Pr(X<1)=0.48−0.05=0.43
Model
Model
The contract payment has two possible values.
Y=1000I,I∼Bernoulli(0.43)
Compute
Compute
Scale the Bernoulli variance and take its square root.
Var(Y)=10002(0.43)(0.57)=245100
SD(Y)=245100=495.0757518…
Answer
Answer
The standard deviation rounds to 495.
495(D)
Test the method on unseen problems
Probability Univariate Distributions Practice Workbook
30 original univariate random variables problems with complete solutions and wrong-choice analysis. Written for Exam P, not copied from the SOA set. One-time $19 PDF.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 218 is approximately 1000sqrt(0.05(0.95)). It uses the probability of survival below one year as the payment probability instead of excluding that group.
BThe value 430 is E[Y]=1000(0.43), the expected payment rather than its standard deviation.
CThe value 480 is 1000P(X<5). It treats everyone below five years as payable and reports an expected amount, ignoring both the one-year exclusion and variance.
EThe value 500 is the largest possible standard deviation of a 0-or-1000 payment, attained only when its payment probability is one half. Here the probability is 0.43.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: dispersion of a three-level delivery credit
A delivery contract pays a credit of 0 dollars for an early arrival, 400 dollars for an arrival inside the target window, and 900 dollars for a late arrival. The three outcomes have probabilities 0.18, 0.47, and 0.35, respectively. Calculate the standard deviation of the credit.
A 315.0
B 325.1
C 503.0
D 598.9
E 105691
Answer and calculation
The first two credit moments are 503 and 358700. Subtracting the squared mean gives variance 105691, whose square root is 325.102, so choice B.
Setup
Setup
Calculate the mean across the three mutually exclusive credit levels.
E[C]=0(0.18)+400(0.47)+900(0.35)=503
Model
Model
Use the second-moment identity for variance.
E[C2]=02(0.18)+4002(0.47)+9002(0.35)=358700
Compute
Compute
Subtract the squared mean and take the square root.
Var(C)=358700−5032=105691
SD(C)=105691=325.1015226…
Answer
Answer
The credit standard deviation rounds to 325.1 dollars.