This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. This is an exponential interval probability whose endpoints are the median and mean. Their survival probabilities are 1/2 and e⁻¹, so the interval probability is 0.5-e⁻¹ and choice A is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
BThe supplied median implies λ≈0.4. This option forms exp(−0.16)-0.5 by incorrectly squaring that rate in the exponent instead of multiplying the rate by each time endpoint.
CThis is S(mu)=exp(−1), the probability of exceeding the mean, rather than the probability between the median and mean.
DThis is F(mu)=1-exp(−1), the probability below the mean; it fails to remove the lower half lying below the median.
EThis adds S(mu)=exp(−1) to F(m)=0.5. Those are outside portions on opposite sides, not the central interval requested.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: packet completion within a time window
A data packet's completion time T is exponentially distributed. Monitoring shows that 25% of packets remain unfinished after 6 seconds. Calculate the probability that a packet finishes after 4 seconds but before 8 seconds.
A 0.1575
B 0.2394
C 0.5543
D 0.6031
E 0.8425
Variant answer in brief
The six-second survival condition gives λ=ln(4)/6. The required survival difference is exp(-4lambda)-exp(-8lambda)=0.239360, so choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Infer the exponential rate from the observed survival probability.
e−6λ=0.25
λ=6ln4
Model
Model
Completion in the stated window is the difference between survival at its lower and upper endpoints.
Pr(4<T<8)=S(4)−S(8)
Compute
Compute
Evaluate both survival probabilities using the inferred rate.
S(4)=4−2/3=0.3968502630
S(8)=4−4/3=0.1574901312
S(4)−S(8)=0.2393601318
Answer
Answer
The completion-window probability rounds to 0.2394.
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