Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: network packet-failure mode
A coastal monitoring network models its hourly packet-failure count N with a Poisson distribution. During calibration, engineers determine that the probability of exactly 7 failures is three halves of the probability of exactly 6 failures. Determine the mode or modes of N.
- A
6 only - B
7 only - C
9 only - D
10 only - E
10 and 11
Answer and calculation
The consecutive-mass ratio is λ divided by 7, so the calibration relationship gives λ equal to 10.5. A noninteger Poisson rate has the unique mode floor(10.5) = 10, making D correct.
Setup
Setup
Write the ratio of the two consecutive Poisson masses.
Pr(N=6)Pr(N=7)=e−λλ6/6!e−λλ7/7!=7λ Model
Model
Set the theoretical ratio equal to the observed calibration ratio.
7λ=23 Compute
Compute
Because the rate is not an integer, the Poisson mass increases through floor(λ) and decreases afterward.
p9p10=1010.5>1,p10p11=1110.5<1 Mode(N)=⌊10.5⌋=10 Answer
Answer
The unique modal packet-failure count is 10.
10 only(D)