Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: recover a cooldown-time tail
A kiln's cooldown time X is uniformly distributed on an unknown interval [L,U]. The 25th percentile is 18 minutes, and the mean is 30 minutes. Calculate the probability that a cooldown lasts more than 42 minutes.
- A
0.200 - B
0.250 - C
0.300 - D
0.500 - E
0.750
Answer and calculation
The quantile and mean equations give [L,U]=[6,54]. The part of this 48-minute interval above 42 has length 12, so the probability is 0.250 and choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Write one equation for the reported lower quartile and another for the uniform mean.
0.75L+0.25U=18 2L+U=30 Model
Model
Use L+U=60 to eliminate U from the quartile equation.
0.75L+0.25(60−L)=18 Compute
Compute
The support is [6,54]. Divide the interval length above 42 by the full support width.
0.50L+15=18⟹L=6,U=54 Pr(X>42)=54−654−42=4812=0.250 Answer
Answer
The upper-tail probability is 0.250.
0.250(B)