This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. The median identifies the exponential rate as ln(2)/10. Weighting the two disjoint failure-time windows by their respective payments gives 13.06384325, which rounds to choice A.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
BThis overlaps the two payment windows by treating failures through 7.5 years as eligible for the first payment while also adding the later-window payment.
CThis adds a payment-weighted survival probability rather than using the probability of failure inside each covered interval.
DThis is close to 35P(T>5), which reverses failure and survival at the first warranty boundary and ignores the second payment tier.
EThis extends the second payment beyond the end of the warranty instead of assigning zero after 7.5 years.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: capped operating credits
A field instrument remains operational for an exponential time T with mean 4 years. A research program earns 12 credits for each year of operation, but only during the instrument's first three years. The credited amount is proportional for partial years. Calculate the expected total credit.
A 5.668
B 6.332
C 25.326
D 36.000
E 48.000
Variant answer in brief
The credited operating time is min(T,3). Integrating its survival function gives 4(1-exp(−0.75)) years, so the expected credit is 48(1-exp(−0.75))=25.32640547 and choice C is correct.
Setup
Setup
Represent the credited duration by the operating lifetime capped at three years.
T∼Exponential(mean 4)
C=12min(T,3)
Model
Model
Use the survival-integral identity for a capped nonnegative duration.
E[min(T,3)]=∫03Pr(T>t)dt
Pr(T>t)=e−t/4
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the capped lifetime integral and multiply by the annual credit rate.
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