This Exam P sample reference tests Normal Distribution. This is a normal-quantile calibration problem. The supplied center and lower quantile imply a standard deviation of about 15, making the target z-score 0.63337 and its cumulative probability 0.73675, so choice B is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe 71st percentile corresponds to a z-score near 0.55. It results from inflating the inferred standard deviation instead of using the standard-normal 40th-percentile quantile accurately.
CThe 78th percentile requires a z-score near 0.77, so it reflects a standard deviation that is too small. The known quantile must first be converted with Phi inverse, not read as a raw distance.
DThe 81st percentile similarly overstates the target z-score by compressing the scale too much. Normal percentiles are not linearly spaced in the original score units.
ETreating 0.40 itself as the magnitude of the known z-score gives sigma=9.5 and a target z-score of 1, which points near the 84th or 85th percentile.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: paired calibration gap
A calibration facility records independent readings A and B. Reading A is normal with mean 80 and standard deviation 6, while B is normal with mean 72 and standard deviation 8. A gap of 18 is observed for A-B. Approximately what percentile of the distribution of A-B does this gap represent?
A 16th
B 50th
C 76th
D 84th
E 97th
Variant answer in brief
The difference A-B is normal with mean 8 and standard deviation 10. The observed gap has z=(18-8)/10=1, whose cumulative probability is 0.84134, so it is approximately the 84th percentile.
Setup
Setup
Let D be the difference between the two independent calibration readings.
D=A−B
E[D]=80−72=8
Model
Model
A linear combination of independent normal variables is normal, and the variances add even though one variable is subtracted.
Var(D)=62+82=100
D∼N(8,102)
Compute
Compute
Standardize the observed gap and evaluate the normal cumulative probability.
z=1018−8=1
Pr(D≤18)=Φ(1)=0.8413447461…
Answer
Answer
A cumulative probability near 0.84 corresponds to the 84th percentile.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.