This Exam P sample reference tests Uniform Distribution. The smallest threshold exceeded by no more than 5% of observations is the 95th percentile. For a uniform interval from 1.1 to 8.6, this is 1.1+0.95(7.5)=8.225, so choice D is correct.
Translate the upper-tail requirement into a cumulative probability.
Pr(X>y)≤0.05
F(y)≥0.95
Model
Model
At the minimum admissible threshold, equality holds in the continuous uniform CDF.
F(y)=8.6−1.1y−1.1=0.95
Compute
Compute
Solve the percentile equation.
y=1.1+0.95(7.5)=8.225
Answer
Answer
The minimum threshold is 8.225 minutes.
8.225(D)
Test the method on unseen problems
Probability Univariate Distributions Practice Workbook
30 original univariate random variables problems with complete solutions and wrong-choice analysis. Written for Exam P, not copied from the SOA set. One-time $19 PDF.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis calculates the 5th percentile, 1.1+0.05(7.5), instead of the 95th percentile required by an upper 5% tail.
BThis multiplies the interval width by 0.95 but forgets to add the lower endpoint 1.1.
CThis computes 0.95(8.6), treating the interval as though it began at zero.
EThis subtracts 5% of the lower endpoint from 8.6 instead of subtracting 5% of the full interval width.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: spread from uniform quartiles
A sensor latency is uniformly distributed on an unknown interval. Its 25th percentile is 14 milliseconds and its 75th percentile is 26 milliseconds. Calculate the standard deviation of the latency.
A 6.000
B 6.928
C 12.000
D 13.856
E 24.000
Answer and calculation
For a uniform distribution, the interquartile range equals one-half of the support width. The 12-millisecond interquartile range therefore gives width 24 and standard deviation 24/√(12)=6.9282, so choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Relate uniform percentiles to the unknown support width w.
q0.75−q0.25=(0.75−0.25)w
Model
Model
Use the observed interquartile range to recover the full width.
26−14=0.5w
w=24
Compute
Compute
Apply the continuous uniform standard-deviation formula.
SD(X)=12w
SD(X)=1224=6.9282032303…
Answer
Answer
The latency standard deviation rounds to 6.928 milliseconds.