This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. An exponential variable with mean mu has percentile q_p=-mu ln(1-p). The 75th and 25th percentiles are mu ln 4 and mu ln(4/3), whose difference simplifies to mu ln 3, so choice D is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis places the mean in the denominator as though mu were a rate; it also has units inconsistent with a percentile difference.
BThis assumes the interquartile range equals the exponential mean and drops the logarithmic factor.
CThe quantity mu ln 2 is the exponential median and also the gap from the median to the 75th percentile, not the full interquartile range.
EThis confuses a squared scale such as variance with a difference of percentiles, which must have the same units as the random variable.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: earliest beacon signal
Three independent emergency beacons have exponential times to their first signal. Each beacon's individual median signal time is 12 minutes. Calculate the 75th percentile of the time until the first of the three beacons signals.
A 4 minutes
B 8 minutes
C 12 minutes
D 24 minutes
E 36 minutes
Variant answer in brief
An individual median of 12 implies rate ln(2)/12. The minimum of three independent exponential times has three times that rate. Its 75th percentile solves survival 0.25 and equals 8 minutes, so choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Convert the individual median into an exponential rate.
e−12λ=0.5
λ=12ln2
Model
Model
The earliest of three independent exponential times is exponential with the sum of their rates.
Tmin∼Exponential(3λ)
Pr(Tmin>t)=e−3λt
Compute
Compute
At a 75th percentile, the survival probability is one-quarter.
e−3(ln2/12)t=0.25
t=3ln2/12ln4=8
Answer
Answer
The 75th percentile of the earliest signal time is 8 minutes.
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