Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: earliest beacon signal
Three independent emergency beacons have exponential times to their first signal. Each beacon's individual median signal time is 12 minutes. Calculate the 75th percentile of the time until the first of the three beacons signals.
- A
4 minutes - B
8 minutes - C
12 minutes - D
24 minutes - E
36 minutes
Answer and calculation
An individual median of 12 implies rate ln(2)/12. The minimum of three independent exponential times has three times that rate. Its 75th percentile solves survival 0.25 and equals 8 minutes, so choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Convert the individual median into an exponential rate.
e−12λ=0.5 λ=12ln2 Model
Model
The earliest of three independent exponential times is exponential with the sum of their rates.
Tmin∼Exponential(3λ) Pr(Tmin>t)=e−3λt Compute
Compute
At a 75th percentile, the survival probability is one-quarter.
e−3(ln2/12)t=0.25 t=3ln2/12ln4=8 Answer
Answer
The 75th percentile of the earliest signal time is 8 minutes.
8 minutes(B)