This Exam P sample reference tests Uniform Distribution. This problem first finds the variance of the payment above the deductible before coinsurance. That variance is 6000, so variance scaling gives p=√(2000/6000)=0.57735 and choice C.
Let Z be the amount above the deductible before applying the selected percentage, and let X=pZ be the paid amount.
Z=(L−240)+,X=pZ
Model
Model
Half of the uniform losses produce zero. On the positive range, integrate with the original uniform density 1/480.
E[Z]=∫240480(l−240)4801dl=60
E[Z2]=∫240480(l−240)24801dl=9600
Compute
Compute
Compute the base variance, then use the square-law for a scaled random variable.
Var(Z)=9600−602=6000
2000=Var(pZ)=p2(6000)
p=60002000=0.5773502692…
Answer
Answer
The selected percentage is approximately 57.7%.
57.7%(C)
Test the method on unseen problems
Probability Univariate Distributions Practice Workbook
30 original univariate random variables problems with complete solutions and wrong-choice analysis. Written for Exam P, not copied from the SOA set. One-time $19 PDF.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AAt p=0.111, the payment variance would be p²(6000)=73.9, not 2000; the candidate neither uses the correct square-root scaling nor satisfies the target.
BThis is 2000/6000=1/3. Variance scales with the square of the percentage, so the square root is required.
DAt p=0.645, the payment variance would be p²(6000)=2496.2, which is above the 2000 target.
EAt p=0.913, the payment variance would be p²(6000)=5001.4, which is far above the 2000 target.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: coefficient of variation of a service charge
The number W of follow-up tasks on a service case equals 0, 2, or 5 with probabilities 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2. The total charge is C=10+3W dollars. Calculate the coefficient of variation of C.
A 0.1289
B 0.1496
C 0.3867
D 1.0722
E 1.1924
Answer and calculation
The task count has mean 1.6 and variance 3.64. Thus the charge has mean 14.8 and variance 32.76, giving CV=√(32.76)/14.8=0.3867 and choice C.
Setup
Setup
Compute the first two moments of the discrete task count.
E[W]=0(0.5)+2(0.3)+5(0.2)=1.6
E[W2]=02(0.5)+22(0.3)+52(0.2)=6.2
Model
Model
Apply the mean and variance rules for an affine transformation.