This Exam P sample reference tests Uniform Distribution. The supplemental payment has a zero region, a linear region, and a capped region. Its first two moments are 275 and 116666.67, producing variance 41041.67, choice C.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 20,833 is 500 squared divided by 12, the variance of a uniform variable on [0,500]. The payment is not uniform because it also has atoms at zero and 500.
BThe value 26,042 results from integrating only the uncapped linear segment: 41666.67-125 squared=26041.67. It drops the 30% probability mass at the 500 limit.
DThe value 53,333 is 800 squared divided by 12. It treats the uncapped remaining expense as uniform on [0,800] and ignores both the zero-payment and cap mechanics.
EThe value 83,333 is the variance of the original uniform expense, 1000 squared divided by 12. It does not transform the expense through either plan.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: variance under a franchise trigger
A drone repair bill X is uniformly distributed from 0 to 10 thousand credits. A grant pays the entire bill when X exceeds 6 and pays zero otherwise. Let Y be the grant payment. Calculate Var(Y), in squared thousand-credit units.
A 3.200
B 8.333
C 10.240
D 15.893
E 26.133
Variant answer in brief
The grant has mean integral from 6 to 10 of x/10, equal to 3.2, and second moment 26.1333. Its variance is 26.1333-3.2 squared=15.8933, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Express the all-or-nothing grant payment created by the franchise trigger.
Y=X1{X>6}
fX(x)=101,0<x<10
Model
Model
Integrate the first two payment moments over bills that pass the trigger.
E[Y]=101∫610xdx=3.2
E[Y2]=101∫610x2dx=15392
Compute
Compute
Subtract the squared mean from the second raw moment.
Var(Y)=15392−3.22
Var(Y)=751192=15.8933333
Answer
Answer
The grant-payment variance is approximately 15.893.
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