This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. Write both percentile conditions with the exponential CDF and eliminate the percentile level. The two survival values sum to one, giving y=-10 log(1-exp(-x/10)), which is choice A.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
BThis choice reverses the rate and mean in both places, using an outer factor of 1/10 and an exponent of -10x instead of the exponential scale 10.
CReplacing the probability complement 1-exp(−x/10) by 10-exp(−x/10) incorrectly inserts the mean inside a dimensionless logarithm.
DThis expression combines both mistakes: it inserts 10 in the probability complement and uses rate 10 rather than mean 10 to scale the logarithm.
EAlthough its exponent uses the correct x/10 scale, it still replaces the complement's 1 by 10 and uses 1/10 outside the logarithm.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: expedition battery quantiles
The operating time of an expedition battery pack follows an exponential distribution. Let a be its 30th percentile and b be its 90th percentile. Express b as a multiple of a.
A 0.087a
B 0.155a
C 3.000a
D 6.456a
E 7.000a
Variant answer in brief
Exponential quantiles are proportional to minus the logarithm of the survival probability. Thus b/a=log(0.10)/log(0.70), approximately 6.455696, so choice D is correct.
Setup
Setup
Let θ denote the unknown exponential mean and write the general quantile formula.
qp=−θlog(1−p)
Model
Model
Apply the quantile formula to the two stated percentile levels.
a=−θlog(0.70)
b=−θlog(0.10)
Compute
Compute
Divide the equations so the unknown scale cancels.
ab=log(0.70)log(0.10)=6.4556962358…
b=6.4556962358…a
Answer
Answer
The 90th percentile is approximately 6.456 times the 30th percentile.
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