This Exam P sample reference tests Deductible Payments. Scaling damage by its upper endpoint reduces the calculation to a uniform variable on [0,1] and payment (U-0.1) positive part. The payment-to-damage standard-deviation ratio is √(0.9477) = 0.97350, choice E.
Scale out b by writing U=X/b and Z=Y/b for the payment Y.
U∼Uniform(0,1)
Z=(U−0.1)+
Model
Model
Integrate the first two moments of the scaled payment over the paying region.
E[Z]=∫0.11(u−0.1)du
E[Z2]=∫0.11(u−0.1)2du
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the moments, form the variance, and compare it with the uniform variance.
E[Z]=20.92=0.405,E[Z2]=30.93=0.243
Var(Z)=0.243−0.4052=0.078975
Var(X)Var(Y)=1/120.078975=0.9477
Answer
Answer
Taking the square root converts the variance ratio to the requested standard-deviation ratio.
SD(X)SD(Y)=0.9477=0.9734988
0.9735(E)
Test the method on unseen problems
Probability Univariate Distributions Practice Workbook
30 original univariate random variables problems with complete solutions and wrong-choice analysis. Written for Exam P, not copied from the SOA set. One-time $19 PDF.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 0.8100 is 0.9 squared, obtained by treating the reduction in the maximum payment as if it scaled every outcome. The deductible instead creates a point mass at zero.
BThe value 0.9000 is the maximum-payment ratio. A standard deviation depends on both payment moments, not only the range endpoint.
CThe value 0.9477 is the verified variance ratio. The question asks for the ratio of standard deviations, so a square root is still required.
DThe value 0.9487 is √(0.9), which applies a square root to the maximum-payment fraction rather than to the calculated variance ratio.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: variability after an exponential cap
Repair expense has an exponential law and expected value 500. A contract remits the smaller of the expense and 500. What multiple of the original expense standard deviation is the remittance standard deviation?
A 0.1289
B 0.3590
C 0.5285
D 0.6321
E 1.0000
Answer and calculation
After scaling by 500, the capped variable has variance 1-2/e-exp(−2) = 0.12891. The uncapped exponential has unit scaled variance, so the standard-deviation ratio is 0.35903, choice B.
Setup
Setup
Scale the cost by its mean and cap the resulting unit-mean exponential variable at one.
U=500X∼Exponential(1)
V=500Y=min(U,1)
Model
Model
Use tail integrals for the first two moments of the nonnegative capped variable.
E[V]=∫01e−tdt
E[V2]=2∫01te−tdt
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the moments and subtract the squared mean.
E[V]=1−e−1=0.6321206
E[V2]=2−4e−1=0.5284822
Var(V)=1−2e−1−e−2=0.1289058
Answer
Answer
The scale factor cancels from the ratio, and the uncapped unit exponential has standard deviation one.