Independent solution

How to solve this Poisson Distribution question

Setup

Setup

For a Poisson variable, the variance equals the mean. The supplied variance therefore identifies the rate for one item.

X1,X2Poisson(0.25)X_1,X_2\sim\operatorname{Poisson}(0.25)

Model

Model

Independent Poisson variables add to another Poisson variable whose mean is the sum of the component means.

T=X1+X2Poisson(0.25+0.25)=Poisson(0.50)T=X_1+X_2\sim\operatorname{Poisson}(0.25+0.25)=\operatorname{Poisson}(0.50)

Compute

Compute

The required upper tail is most directly evaluated by removing the masses at zero and one.

Pr(T>1)=1Pr(T=0)Pr(T=1)\Pr(T>1)=1-\Pr(T=0)-\Pr(T=1)
Pr(T>1)=1e0.50.5e0.5=0.09020401043\Pr(T>1)=1-e^{-0.5}-0.5e^{-0.5}=0.09020401043

Answer

Answer

The result rounds to the second listed probability.

0.09(B)\boxed{0.09\quad\text{(B)}}