This Exam P sample reference tests Poisson Distribution. Each count has Poisson mean 0.25, and independence makes their aggregate Poisson with mean 0.50. Complementing the zero- and one-count masses gives 0.090204, so choice B is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis is the one-item tail, 1-exp(−0.25)(1+0.25)=0.0265, rounded to 0.03; it never combines the two independent counts.
CThis is the probability of exactly one aggregate event, 0.5 exp(−0.5)=0.3033, rather than the probability of exceeding one.
DThis is the aggregate zero-count mass, exp(−0.5)=0.6065, so it selects the complement's first term instead of the upper tail.
EThis is Pr(T≤1)=1.5 exp(−0.5)=0.9098, the complement of the requested event.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: pooled sensor alerts
Three sensor clusters generate false alerts as independent Poisson processes with rates 0.15, 0.35, and 0.20 per hour. During a two-hour diagnostic window, calculate the probability that the monitoring service records at least three false alerts.
A 0.1665
B 0.2417
C 0.2466
D 0.3452
E 0.8335
Variant answer in brief
Pooling the three streams over two hours gives a Poisson mean of 1.4. Complementing the masses for zero, one, and two alerts produces 0.166502, so choice A is correct.
Setup
Setup
Add the three hourly rates before applying the two-hour exposure.
λhour=0.15+0.35+0.20=0.70
Model
Model
Superposition and time scaling give the diagnostic-window count.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.