This Exam P sample reference tests Binomial Distribution. The all-five event makes s+t the fifth root of c. Combining that relation with the one-policy normalization equation yields the fifth listed expression for t, choice E.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis is the recovered zero-outcome probability s, not the requested probability t.
BThis expression results from reversing a sign and changing the constant term; substituted back, it does not preserve the required sum s+t.
CThis is the negative of the zero-outcome probability s rather than the requested probability t.
DTogether with the correctly recovered value of s, this expression does not make s+t equal the fifth root of c, so it fails the all-five relation.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: repeated review with a deferred outcome
At each review, a request is approved with probability θ, deferred with probability 2θ, or rejected with the remaining probability. Reviews are independent, and a deferred request is reviewed again until it is approved or rejected. The probability that a request is eventually approved is 5/8. Calculate the probability that the initial review is deferred.
A 1/6
B 5/18
C 3/8
D 5/9
E 5/8
Variant answer in brief
Conditional on a review that ends the process, the approval probability is θ/(1−2θ). Equating this to 5/8 gives θ=5/18, so the initial deferral probability is 2θ=5/9, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Write the three one-review probabilities and isolate the outcomes that end the review process.
pA=θ,pD=2θ,pR=1−3θ
pA+pR=1−2θ
Model
Model
Deferrals only postpone the terminal decision. Conditional on a terminal review, approval therefore has probability θ divided by the total terminal probability.
Pr(eventual approval)=1−2θθ=85
Compute
Compute
Solve for θ, then double it to obtain the one-review deferral probability.
8θ=5(1−2θ)⟹θ=185
pD=2θ=95
Answer
Answer
The probability of a deferral on the initial review is 5/9.
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