This Exam P sample reference tests Discrete Random Variables. For a nonnegative integer count, the expectation is the sum of its positive-threshold survival probabilities. Evaluating the five stated tails gives 1.12565, which rounds to 1.1 and choice B.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 0.9 results from constructing the point masses but omitting the terminal mass at five when taking the expectation.
CThe value 2.1 results from shifting every support value upward by one, treating the mass at zero as though it were at one.
DThe value 2.3 comes from weighting each survival probability by its threshold. The tail-sum identity adds the tails without those extra weights.
EThe value 3.9 comes from summing the complementary cumulative probabilities instead of the survival probabilities.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: service cost from a failure-count tail table
A device has a failure count N between zero and four. Its probabilities of at least one, two, three, and four failures are 0.60, 0.35, 0.15, and 0.05. A service visit costs 12 dollars plus 5 dollars per failure. Calculate the expected service cost.
A 5.75
B 12.00
C 13.15
D 17.75
E 32.00
Variant answer in brief
Adding the four tail probabilities gives an expected failure count of 1.15. The affine service charge therefore has expectation 12 plus five times 1.15, or 17.75 dollars. This is choice D.
Setup
Setup
Apply the tail-sum identity to the bounded failure count.
E[N]=0.60+0.35+0.15+0.05=1.15
Model
Model
Write the service cost as an affine function of the count.
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