Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: filtration cartridge life
The operating life of a filtration cartridge is exponentially distributed with mean 8 weeks. A cartridge has already operated for 5 weeks without failing. Calculate the conditional probability that it continues operating for at least 6 additional weeks.
- A
0.252840 - B
0.527633 - C
0.472367 - D
0.535261 - E
0.747160
Answer and calculation
Exponential memorylessness makes the remaining lifetime exponential with the original mean. The six-week residual survival probability is exp(-6/8)=0.472367, which selects choice C.
Setup
Setup
Let T be total cartridge life. Translate the wording into a conditional survival probability.
Pr(T≥11∣T≥5) Model
Model
The exponential distribution is memoryless, so only the six additional weeks enter the residual survival calculation.
Pr(T≥5+6∣T≥5)=Pr(T≥6) λ=81 Compute
Compute
Evaluate the exponential survival function for the required additional duration.
Pr(T≥6)=e−(1/8)6=e−3/4 e−3/4=0.4723665527… Answer
Answer
The conditional probability of at least six more operating weeks is approximately 0.472367.
0.472367(C)