This Exam P sample reference tests Normal Distribution. The variance factor 2.25 corresponds to a standard-deviation factor 1.5. A common value therefore has standardized score z_0.14/1.5 under the wider distribution, giving percentile 23.57%, choice D.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 5.3% comes from multiplying z_0.14 by 1.5 instead of dividing. A wider distribution makes the same below-mean value less extreme in standardized units.
BThe value 9.3% divides the percentile number itself by 1.5, computing 14%/1.5. Standard deviations rescale z-scores, not percentile probabilities.
CThe value 21.0% multiplies the percentile number itself by 1.5, computing 14%(1.5). The normal CDF must be applied after rescaling the z-score.
EThe value 31.6% results from dividing z_0.14 by 2.25, using the variance ratio where the standard-deviation ratio is required.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: infer a variance ratio from two alarm rates
Two automated lines produce measurement errors centered at a shared value m. Each error law is Gaussian, but the spreads may differ. At one fixed trigger h greater than m, line A crosses h on 2.5% of runs, whereas line B crosses h on 10% of runs. Find the quotient of B's variance and A's variance.
A 0.4275
B 0.6540
C 1.0000
D 1.5294
E 2.3390
Variant answer in brief
The common alarm distance equals 1.95996 standard deviations for A and 1.28155 for B. Their standard-deviation ratio is 1.52937, so the variance ratio is 2.33897, choice E.
Setup
Setup
Let h be the shared alarm level and convert each upper-tail probability to a positive z-score.
zA=Φ−1(0.975)=1.959964
zB=Φ−1(0.90)=1.281552
Model
Model
Both standardized distances represent the same physical distance h-mu.
h−μ=zAσA=zBσB
Compute
Compute
Find the scale ratio and square it to obtain the requested variance ratio.
σAσB=1.2815521.959964=1.529368
Var(A)Var(B)=(1.529368)2=2.338967
Answer
Answer
Process B has about 2.339 times the variance of process A.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.