Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: retained chamber readings
A chamber temperature X has a Gaussian model with mean 70°C and standard deviation 8°C. The logging system retains a reading only if it lies between 62°C and 78°C, inclusive. Given that a reading was retained, determine the probability that it is above 74°C.
- A
0.14988 - B
0.21955 - C
0.30854 - D
0.53281 - E
0.68269
Answer and calculation
The retained interval has z-bounds -1 and 1, while 74°C has z-score 0.5. Dividing the probability between z=0.5 and z=1 by the probability between z=-1 and z=1 gives 0.21955, choice B.
Setup
Setup
Standardize the two retention bounds and the target temperature.
z62=−1,z74=0.5,z78=1 Model
Model
Within the retained interval, being above 74°C means falling between 74°C and the upper retention bound.
Pr(X>74∣62≤X≤78)=Φ(1)−Φ(−1)Φ(1)−Φ(0.5) Compute
Compute
Evaluate the numerator interval and divide by the full retained probability.
Φ(1)−Φ(0.5)=0.1498823 Φ(1)−Φ(−1)=0.6826895 0.68268950.1498823=0.2195468 Answer
Answer
About 21.955% of retained readings exceed 74°C.
0.21955(B)