This Exam P sample reference tests Normal Distribution. This problem uses the fact that a normal median equals its mean. The 90th percentile lies 1.28155 standard deviations above the median, so the difference is 500(1.28155)=640.776 and choice C.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AA difference of 241 corresponds to a standardized displacement 241/500=0.482, whose cumulative probability is only about 0.685. It results from an incorrect standard-normal lookup for the 90th percentile.
BThe calculation 500(1.2816-0.40)=440.8 subtracts the magnitude of the supplied observation's z-score. The median has z-score zero, so that location information should not enter the percentile-minus-median gap.
DThe value 500(1.64485)=822.4 uses the 95th-percentile standard-normal quantile instead of the 90th-percentile quantile.
EThe value 500(1.96)=980 uses the 97.5th-percentile critical value associated with a central 95% interval, not the 90th percentile.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: reflect lognormal percentiles across the median
A service duration is lognormally distributed. Its median is 20 minutes and its 90th percentile is 50 minutes. Calculate its 10th percentile, in minutes.
A 0.4
B 2.5
C 8.0
D 20.0
E 30.0
Variant answer in brief
Normal symmetry applies after taking logarithms. Complementary lognormal percentiles satisfy q_0.10 q_0.90=median², so q_0.10=20²⁄⁵⁰=8 minutes and choice C.
Setup
Setup
Let Y be the logarithm of the duration. Its normal mean is the logarithm of the lognormal median.
Y=lnX∼N(μ,σ2)
μ=ln20
Model
Model
The 10th and 90th standard-normal quantiles have equal magnitude and opposite signs.
lnq0.90=μ+z0.90σ
lnq0.10=μ−z0.90σ
Compute
Compute
Add the two log-quantile equations and solve for the lower percentile.
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