This Exam P sample reference tests Continuous Distributions. Normalizing the power density gives cumulative distribution F(x)=x⁶. The probability that neither of two independent losses exceeds the threshold is therefore d¹². Setting its complement equal to P gives d=(1-P)⁽¹⁄¹²⁾, so choice E is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis uses the density's exponent 5 as though it were the CDF exponent and also equates the below-threshold probability directly to P.
BThis doubles the incorrect exponent 5 for two observations but still uses P rather than the no-payment probability 1-P.
CThis uses the correct complement 1-P but treats F(d) as d⁵, producing a tenth root instead of a twelfth root.
DThis correctly obtains the exponent 12 but assigns P to the probability that both observations are below the threshold; that event has probability 1-P.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: lower quartile of an inspection minimum
A coating score X has density f(x)=2(1-x) for 0<x<1. Four scores are sampled independently, and M is their minimum. Calculate the 25th percentile of M.
A 0.0353
B 0.1340
C 0.1591
D 0.4588
E 0.9647
Variant answer in brief
One score has survival function (1-x)², so the four-score minimum has survival function (1-m)⁸. Setting its CDF to 0.25 gives m=1-0.75⁽¹⁄⁸⁾=0.035321, so choice A is correct.
Setup
Setup
Integrate the density and write the survival function of one score.
FX(x)=1−(1−x)2
SX(x)=(1−x)2
Model
Model
The minimum exceeds m only if all four independent scores exceed m.
Pr(M>m)=SX(m)4=(1−m)8
FM(m)=1−(1−m)8
Compute
Compute
Set the minimum's CDF equal to one quarter and solve.
1−(1−m)8=0.25
m=1−0.751/8=0.0353213700
Answer
Answer
The lower quartile of the minimum rounds to 0.0353.
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