This Exam P sample reference tests Continuous Random Variables. This problem integrates a gamma-shaped density over the interval matching the time units. Evaluating the antiderivative at 1 and 2 gives 2/e-3/exp(2)=0.329753, so choice C.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AIntegrating from 10 to 20 without converting to the random variable's time units gives 11 exp(−10)-21 exp(−20)=0.0004994, which rounds to 0.0005.
BThe density decreases from exp(−1)=0.3679 to 2 exp(−2)=0.2707 over this unit-width interval. Therefore its integral must exceed 0.2707, so 0.0867 fails a direct magnitude check.
DThe value 0.6702 is 1-0.3298. It gives the probability outside the target interval rather than the probability between its endpoints.
EThe value 0.9995 is the complement of the 0.0005 produced by using unscaled bounds 10 and 20, combining a unit-conversion error with an unnecessary complement.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: normalize a symmetric tolerance density
A fabrication process records a centered tolerance score Z between -1 and 1. On that range its density is f(z)=c(1-z²), with no mass outside the range. The coefficient c normalizes the model. Find Pr(|Z|<1/2).
A 0.3438
B 0.5000
C 0.6875
D 0.7500
E 0.9167
Variant answer in brief
Normalization gives c=3/4. Symmetry then reduces the central probability to twice the integral from 0 to 1/2, producing 11/16=0.6875 and choice C.
Setup
Setup
First determine the unknown density constant from total probability one.
1=c∫−11(1−z2)dz
1=c[z−3z3]−11=c34
Model
Model
Solve for c and use symmetry to express the central interval probability as twice a one-sided integral.
c=43
Pr(∣Z∣<21)=2(43)∫01/2(1−z2)dz
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the polynomial antiderivative at the positive cutoff.
Pr(∣Z∣<21)=23[z−3z3]01/2
=23(21−241)=1611=0.6875
Answer
Answer
The probability of a score within one half of the center is 0.6875.
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