Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: capped emergency-power demand
A remote clinic’s emergency energy demand D has survival function P(D>x)=(3/x)² for x at least 3 kilowatt-hours. A battery can supply at most 12 kilowatt-hours. Find the expected energy actually supplied.
- C
3.750 kWh - B
4.500 kWh - A
5.250 kWh - D
5.625 kWh - E
6.000 kWh
Answer and calculation
Integrating the survival probability up to the battery ceiling gives 3 plus 9 times the integral of x⁻² from 3 to 12, or 5.25 kWh.
Setup
Setup
Let the supplied energy be the smaller of D and 12. The survival probability is one below the minimum demand 3 and equals 9 divided by x squared thereafter.
SD(x)=1 (0≤x<3),SD(x)=9x−2 (x≥3) Model
Model
For a nonnegative demand, the expected amount delivered up to capacity 12 is the integral of its survival function from zero to 12.
E[min(D,12)]=∫012SD(x)dx Compute
Compute
The interval from 0 to 3 contributes 3. Integrating the inverse-square survival function from 3 to 12 contributes 2.25, for a total of 5.25.
E[min(D,12)]=3+9∫312x−2dx=3+9(31−121)=5.25 Answer
Answer
Therefore the battery supplies 5.250 kWh on average, corresponding to choice A.
5.250 kWh(A)