Independent solution

How to solve this Normal Distribution question

Setup

Setup

Let X denote the loss and d the deductible. A positive payment on one loss is the excess of X above d.

X∼N(525,1002),Y=(X−d)+X\sim N(525,100^2),\qquad Y=(X-d)_+

Model

Model

A payment greater than 500 occurs exactly when the underlying loss exceeds d+500. Convert the upper-tail probability to a cumulative probability.

Pr⁡(Y>500)=Pr⁡(X>d+500)=0.14\Pr(Y>500)=\Pr(X>d+500)=0.14
Pr⁡(X≤d+500)=0.86\Pr(X\le d+500)=0.86

Compute

Compute

Standardize the 86th percentile and solve the resulting linear equation for the deductible.

d+500−525100=Φ−1(0.86)=1.0803193408…\frac{d+500-525}{100}=\Phi^{-1}(0.86)=1.0803193408\ldots
d=525+100(1.0803193408…)−500=133.0319341…d=525+100(1.0803193408\ldots)-500=133.0319341\ldots

Answer

Answer

The deductible rounds to 133 in the units of the listed answers.

d≈133(E)\boxed{d\approx 133\quad\text{(E)}}