Independent solution

How to solve this Normal Distribution question

Answer in brief

This is a normal-tail inversion after translating a payment threshold back to a loss threshold. The 86th loss percentile is 633.032, so subtracting the 500 payment threshold gives a deductible of 133.032 and choice E.

Setup

Setup

Let X denote the loss and d the deductible. A positive payment on one loss is the excess of X above d.

XN(525,1002),Y=(Xd)+X\sim N(525,100^2),\qquad Y=(X-d)_+

Model

Model

A payment greater than 500 occurs exactly when the underlying loss exceeds d+500. Convert the upper-tail probability to a cumulative probability.

Pr(Y>500)=Pr(X>d+500)=0.14\Pr(Y>500)=\Pr(X>d+500)=0.14
Pr(Xd+500)=0.86\Pr(X\le d+500)=0.86

Compute

Compute

Standardize the 86th percentile and solve the resulting linear equation for the deductible.

d+500525100=Φ1(0.86)=1.0803193408\frac{d+500-525}{100}=\Phi^{-1}(0.86)=1.0803193408\ldots
d=525+100(1.0803193408)500=133.0319341d=525+100(1.0803193408\ldots)-500=133.0319341\ldots

Answer

Answer

The deductible rounds to 133 in the units of the listed answers.

d133(E)\boxed{d\approx 133\quad\text{(E)}}