Independent solution

How to solve this Poisson Distribution question

Setup

Setup

Invert each Poisson zero-count probability to recover the corresponding mean claim count.

λA=ln(0.70)=0.3566749439\lambda_A=-\ln(0.70)=0.3566749439\ldots
λB=ln(0.90)=0.1053605157\lambda_B=-\ln(0.90)=0.1053605157\ldots
λC=ln(0.50)=0.6931471806\lambda_C=-\ln(0.50)=0.6931471806\ldots

Model

Model

Multiply each per-policy mean by its group population, measured in thousands.

E[T]/1000=20λA+45λB+35λCE[T]/1000=20\lambda_A+45\lambda_B+35\lambda_C

Compute

Compute

Evaluate and add the three expected group totals.

E[T]/1000=7.1334988788+4.7412232046+24.2601513196E[T]/1000=7.1334988788+4.7412232046+24.2601513196
=36.13487340297=36.13487340297\ldots

Answer

Answer

The expected total rounds to 36 thousand claims.

36 thousand(C)\boxed{36\text{ thousand}\quad\text{(C)}}