This Exam P sample reference tests Normal Distribution. The supplied cumulative probabilities correspond to z=0.72 and z=1.32. Their 0.60 separation across 1000 units gives sigma=1666.67 and mu=800; the target z-score is 0.12, so Φ(0.12)=0.5478, choice C.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe probability 0.1424 corresponds to z=-1.070, not the required z=0.12. It is inconsistent with the affine spacing of the two calibrated quantiles.
BThe probability 0.3022 corresponds to z=-0.518. Substituting that score into x=mu+sigma z does not return the target cutoff.
DThe probability 0.6218 corresponds to z=0.310. This uses too small a downward z-step from 0.72 when the cutoff falls by 1000.
EThe value 0.7257 is Φ(0.60), using the z-gap between the two known cutoffs as the target z-score rather than subtracting it from 0.72.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: a percentile-calibrated sample mean
A package mass X is normally distributed. Its median is 80 grams, and its 90th percentile is 92 grams. Four packages are selected independently. Calculate the probability that their average mass exceeds 85 grams.
A 0.1000
B 0.1428
C 0.2967
D 0.7033
E 0.8572
Variant answer in brief
The median gives mean 80, while the 90th percentile gives standard deviation 12/1.2815516. The four-package average has half that standard deviation, so its threshold z-score is 1.06796 and its upper-tail probability is 0.14277, choice B.
Setup
Setup
Use the median and upper percentile to identify the individual-package normal model.
μ=80
z0.90=1.2815516
σ=1.281551692−80=9.3636498
Model
Model
Independence makes the average of four packages normal with the same mean and half the individual standard deviation.
X∼N(80,4σ2)
SD(X)=29.3636498=4.6818249
Compute
Compute
Standardize the average-mass threshold and take the upper tail.
z=4.681824985−80=1.0679596
Pr(X>85)=1−Φ(1.0679596)=0.1427694
Answer
Answer
The four-package average exceeds 85 grams with probability about 0.1428.
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