This Exam P sample reference tests Continuous Distributions. This is a conditional interval probability under a linearly increasing density. The relevant density mass is proportional to 10²-5² in the numerator and 20²-5² in the denominator, giving 75/375=0.20 and choice B.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value (10²-5²)/20²=0.1875, near 0.19, is the unconditional interval probability and omits division by Pr(T>5).
CThe value 10²⁄²⁰²=0.25 is Pr(T≤10) before using either part of the conditioning information.
DThe value (10-5)/(20-5)=1/3 treats the density as uniform in time; here probability mass grows linearly with t.
EThe value 1-5²⁄²⁰²=0.9375 is Pr(T>5), the conditioning event itself rather than the conditional target probability.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: locate a point inside a triangular region
A point (X,Y) is selected uniformly from the unit square. An observer is told that X+Y<1. Given this information, calculate the probability that both coordinates are less than 3/4.
A 0.4375
B 0.5000
C 0.7500
D 0.8750
E 0.9375
Variant answer in brief
The conditioning triangle has area 1/2. Requiring both coordinates below 3/4 removes two disjoint corner triangles, each of area 1/32, leaving area 7/16; the conditional ratio is (7/16)/(1/2)=7/8, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Uniform selection turns probability ratios into area ratios. The condition selects the lower-left half of the unit square.
C={(x,y):x+y<1}
Area(C)=21
Model
Model
Within C, failure occurs when either coordinate is at least 3/4. Each failure region is a right triangle with leg length 1/4, and the two regions cannot overlap.
Area(x≥3/4,C)=21(41)2=321
Area(y≥3/4,C)=321
Compute
Compute
Remove both corner regions from the conditioning triangle, then divide by the conditioning area.
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