Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: variance of a mixed inspection score
An inspection score S equals 1 with probability 0.4. Otherwise it is drawn uniformly from 1 to 3, independently of that mixture decision. Determine Var(S).
- A
0.2000 - E
0.2400 - C
0.3333 - D
0.4000 - B
0.4400
Answer and calculation
The mixture has mean 1.6 and second moment 3.0, so its variance is 3.0-1.6²=0.44.
Setup
Setup
Treat S as a two-component mixture: a mass at 1 with weight 0.4 and a Uniform(1,3) component with weight 0.6.
P(S=1)=0.4 S∣{S=1}∼Unif(1,3) Model
Model
Weight the first and second moments of each component by its mixture probability before forming the variance.
E[S]=0.4(1)+0.6(2)=1.6 E[S2]=0.4(1)+0.6(312+1(3)+32) Compute
Compute
The weighted first moment is 1.6 and the second raw moment is 3.0. Subtracting the squared mean gives variance 0.44.
E[S2]=3.0 Var(S)=3.0−(1.6)2=0.44 Answer
Answer
The inspection-score variance is 0.4400, corresponding to choice B.
0.4400(B)