Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: storm-repair reserve
A municipal arts venue models its next storm-repair cost X as uniform between 200 and 1400 dollars. A reserve reimburses only the portion of a repair cost above a 500-dollar trigger. Calculate the expected reimbursement from the reserve.
- A
$225.00 - B
$300.00 - C
$337.50 - D
$450.00 - E
$900.00
Answer and calculation
A repair exceeds the trigger with probability 0.75, and its mean excess conditional on doing so is 450 dollars. Their product is 337.50 dollars, making choice C correct.
Setup
Setup
Represent the reserve reimbursement as the positive excess of the repair cost over the trigger.
X∼Uniform(200,1400),R=(X−500)+ Model
Model
A cost above 500 is uniform over the remaining interval, so separate the chance of reimbursement from its conditional amount.
Pr(X>500)=1400−2001400−500=43 E[X−500∣X>500]=20+900=450 Compute
Compute
Multiply the probability of crossing the trigger by the average excess once it is crossed.
E[R]=43(450)=337.50 Answer
Answer
The reserve's expected reimbursement is 337.50 dollars.
E[R]=$337.50(C)