This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. Factoring the relation F(2)=1.9F(1) gives 1+exp(-λ)=1.9, so λ=-ln(0.9)=0.1053605. The exponential variance is 1/λ squared=90.0833, choice E.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 0.1 is the rounded exponential rate λ=0.10536. A rate is the reciprocal scale, not the variance.
BThe value 0.4 is approximately [ln(1.9)] squared. It comes from treating the CDF ratio as a survival ratio and then squaring the resulting rate instead of taking its reciprocal square.
CThe value 2.4 is approximately 1/[ln(1.9)] squared. It uses the incorrect rate ln(1.9), as though the coverage-probability ratio were an exponential survival ratio.
DThe value 9.5 is 1/λ=9.4912, the exponential mean and standard deviation. The question asks for the variance, which is the square of that scale.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: lifetime percentile from a survival ratio
A sensor lifetime X is exponentially distributed. The probability that it survives beyond 9 hours is one quarter of the probability that it survives beyond 3 hours. Calculate the 90th percentile of X.
A 3.000 hours
B 4.328 hours
C 6.000 hours
D 9.966 hours
E 18.732 square hours
Variant answer in brief
The survival ratio gives exp(-6 λ)=1/4 and λ=ln(4)/6. Solving exp(-λ q)=0.10 gives q=6 ln(10)/ln(4)=9.966 hours, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Write the exponential survival function and form the ratio at the two times.
SX(t)=e−λt
SX(3)SX(9)=e−6λ=41
Model
Model
Solve the survival relation for the rate.
6λ=ln(4),λ=6ln(4)
Compute
Compute
At the 90th percentile q, ten percent of lifetimes remain above q.
e−λq=0.10
q=λln(10)=ln(4)6ln(10)=9.9657843
Answer
Answer
The 90th lifetime percentile is approximately 9.966 hours.
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