Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: lifetime percentile from a survival ratio
A sensor lifetime X is exponentially distributed. The probability that it survives beyond 9 hours is one quarter of the probability that it survives beyond 3 hours. Calculate the 90th percentile of X.
- A
3.000 hours - B
4.328 hours - C
6.000 hours - D
9.966 hours - E
18.732 square hours
Answer and calculation
The survival ratio gives exp(-6 λ)=1/4 and λ=ln(4)/6. Solving exp(-λ q)=0.10 gives q=6 ln(10)/ln(4)=9.966 hours, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Write the exponential survival function and form the ratio at the two times.
SX(t)=e−λt SX(3)SX(9)=e−6λ=41 Model
Model
Solve the survival relation for the rate.
6λ=ln(4),λ=6ln(4) Compute
Compute
At the 90th percentile q, ten percent of lifetimes remain above q.
e−λq=0.10 q=λln(10)=ln(4)6ln(10)=9.9657843 Answer
Answer
The 90th lifetime percentile is approximately 9.966 hours.
9.966hours (D)