Independent solution

How to solve this Normal Distribution question

Answer in brief

Independence makes the one-year positive-profit probability the square root of 0.9025, or 0.95. This determines the standard deviation, and the normal interquartile width is 205.03, selecting choice B.

Setup

Setup

Let X be one annual profit with mean 250 and standard deviation sigma. Use independence to recover the one-year probability of a positive profit.

XN(250,σ2)X\sim N(250,\sigma^2)
Pr(X1>0,X2>0)=Pr(X>0)2=0.9025\Pr(X_1>0,X_2>0)=\Pr(X>0)^2=0.9025

Model

Model

The one-year probability is 0.95. Standardizing zero shows that 250 divided by sigma is the 95th standard normal percentile.

Pr(X>0)=0.9025=0.95\Pr(X>0)=\sqrt{0.9025}=0.95
Φ ⁣(250σ)=0.95\Phi\!\left(\frac{250}{\sigma}\right)=0.95

Compute

Compute

Solve for sigma and multiply it by the distance between the standard normal 75th and 25th percentiles.

σ=250z0.95=2501.644853627=151.98920798\sigma=\frac{250}{z_{0.95}}=\frac{250}{1.644853627}=151.98920798\ldots
IQR=(z0.75z0.25)σ\operatorname{IQR}=(z_{0.75}-z_{0.25})\sigma
IQR=2(0.6744897502)(151.98920798)=205.0303258\operatorname{IQR}=2(0.6744897502)(151.98920798)=205.0303258\ldots

Answer

Answer

The normal profit distribution has an interquartile range of about 205.

IQR205(B)\boxed{\operatorname{IQR}\approx205\quad\text{(B)}}