This Exam P sample reference tests Uniform Distribution. For a uniform loss with endpoint b above the deductible, the limited expected value at 180 is 180-16,200/b. Equating this to 144 gives b=450, choice D.
The unreimbursed portion is the loss capped at the deductible. If b were at most 180, its mean would be b/2=144, forcing b=288 and contradicting that assumption; hence b exceeds 180.
U=min(X,180),X∼Uniform(0,b)
b≤180⟹E[U]=2b=144⟹b=288(contradiction)
Model
Model
Use the survival-integral identity for a nonnegative limited variable.
E[U]=∫0180Pr(X>x)dx
Pr(X>x)=1−bx(0≤x≤180)
Compute
Compute
Integrate the linear survival function and solve for the endpoint.
144=∫0180(1−bx)dx=180−2b1802
b=3616200=450
Answer
Answer
The upper endpoint of the loss distribution is 450.
450(D)
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AAt b=236 the limited mean would be 180-16,200/236=111.36, not 144. This endpoint fails the supplied moment by a wide margin.
BThe value 288 sets b/2=144, treating the limited loss as the uncapped loss. The cap at 180 creates an additional point mass at the cap.
CAt b=388 the limited mean is 138.25. This near miss comes from understating the survival mass above the deductible.
EThe value 468 equals 180+2(144), as if the unreimbursed amount were a uniform residual above the deductible. Substitution gives 145.38 rather than 144.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: capped excess reimbursement for a uniform repair cost
A service shop observes repair bills spread evenly across the interval from zero through 600 dollars. A protection plan pays the portion above 150 dollars, subject to a maximum payment of 300 dollars. Determine the plan's expected payment.
A $75.00
B $112.50
C $150.00
D $168.75
E $225.00
Variant answer in brief
The payment is min((X-150)+,300). Integrating its survival probability from 0 to 300 gives an expected payment of $150, choice C.
Setup
Setup
Write the plan payment as a capped excess variable.
Y=min((X−150)+,300)
Model
Model
For payment level t between zero and the cap, Y exceeds t exactly when the cost exceeds 150+t.
Pr(Y>t)=Pr(X>150+t)=600450−t,0≤t<300
Compute
Compute
Integrate the payment survival curve through the cap.
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