This Exam P sample reference tests Joint Distributions. This is a correlation calculation for two binary random variables. The joint table gives covariance 0.0175 and marginal variances 0.1275 and 0.2475, so the correlation is approximately 0.098513 and rounds to choice B.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe covariance is 0.0175, which rounds to 0.018. Reporting covariance without standardizing it produces choice A.
CUsing the uncentered product moment gives 0.10 divided by √(0.15 × 0.55), approximately 0.348; correlation requires centered moments.
DDividing covariance by the product of the variances, without taking the square root, gives approximately 0.555 and selects D.
EApplying one square root to the entire erroneous ratio Cov(X,Y)/(Var(X)Var(Y)) gives approximately 0.745 rather than the correlation formula.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: observatory maintenance signals
On a randomly selected night, let A indicate that an observatory's tracking motor needs recalibration and let B indicate that its cooling monitor sends an alert. Historical frequencies are 0.54 for neither event, 0.08 for recalibration only, 0.18 for an alert only, and 0.20 for both events. Calculate the correlation between A and B.
A 0.094
B 0.429
C 0.613
D 1.971
E -0.429
Variant answer in brief
The marginal event probabilities are 0.28 and 0.38, while the joint-event probability is 0.20. Standardizing covariance 0.0936 gives correlation 0.429480, so choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Form the two marginal event probabilities from the four operating states.
Pr(A=1)=0.08+0.20=0.28
Pr(B=1)=0.18+0.20=0.38
E[AB]=0.20
Model
Model
Use Bernoulli variances and subtract the product of the marginal means from the joint moment.
Var(A)=0.28(0.72)=0.2016
Var(B)=0.38(0.62)=0.2356
Cov(A,B)=0.20−(0.28)(0.38)=0.0936
Compute
Compute
Standardize the covariance by the two marginal standard deviations.
ρA,B=(0.2016)(0.2356)0.0936
ρA,B=0.4294799974…
Answer
Answer
The positive association between the two maintenance signals has correlation approximately 0.429.
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