This Exam P sample reference tests Joint Distributions. First obtain the marginal distribution of Y and the conditional distribution of Y given X=0, then compute each variance from its first two moments. Their ratio is 279/140, approximately 1.99286, so the correct choice is D.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis is the conditional variance alone, 5/9=0.55556..., rounded to 0.56; it omits the requested division.
BThis is the conditional second moment E[Y² | X=0]=1 before subtracting the square of the conditional mean.
CThis is the marginal variance alone, 31/28=1.10714..., rounded to 1.11; it is only the numerator.
EThis is the marginal second moment E[Y²]=47/14=3.35714..., rounded to 3.36, rather than a ratio of variances.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: network links and alert bursts
At a monitoring center, X is the number of backup links available at the start of a shift and Y is the number of alert bursts during that shift; each takes values 0, 1, or 2. With rows indexed by Y and columns by X, the joint probability matrix is (1/20)[[4,2,1],[2,4,2],[1,2,2]]. Calculate Var(Y)/Var(Y given X=1).
A 0.50
B 0.59
C 0.81
D 1.18
E 1.40
Variant answer in brief
The row totals give a marginal variance of 0.59, while normalizing the middle column gives a conditional variance of 0.50. Dividing them yields 1.18, which is choice D.
Setup
Setup
Sum each row of the joint matrix to obtain the distribution of Y.
Pr(Y=0,1,2)=(0.35,0.40,0.25)
E[Y]=0.90,E[Y2]=1.40
Model
Model
The X=1 column has weights 2, 4, and 2, so normalize them by their total of 8.
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