This Exam P sample reference tests Exponential Distribution. The second moment condition first forces the mean of Y to equal 2. Substitution into the remaining mean-variance identity gives alpha squared minus alpha minus 2 equal to zero, whose positive root is 2, so the answer is D.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis can result from treating the fixed exponential mean 4 as a variance of 4 rather than 16.
BThis is obtained by keeping an incorrect linearized version of the exponential variance relation.
CThis can arise from averaging the positive and inadmissible algebraic roots instead of enforcing positivity.
EThis results from a sign or constant error when rearranging alpha squared minus alpha minus 2.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: routed maintenance time
A maintenance request is routed to a quick workflow with probability 0.40 and to an extensive workflow otherwise. Conditional on the route, completion time is exponential with mean 2 hours for the quick workflow and 5 hours for the extensive workflow. Calculate the unconditional variance of completion time.
A 3.80
B 14.44
C 16.60
D 18.76
E 33.20
Variant answer in brief
The unconditional first moment is 3.8 and the second moment is 33.2 because an exponential variable with mean m has second moment 2m squared. Subtracting 3.8 squared gives variance 18.76, so choice D is correct.
Setup
Setup
Let X be completion time and M identify the selected workflow. Average the two conditional means using the routing probabilities.
E[X]=0.40(2)+0.60(5)=3.8
Model
Model
For an exponential variable with mean m, the second moment is twice the square of the mean.
E[X2∣M=quick]=2(22)=8
E[X2∣M=extensive]=2(52)=50
Compute
Compute
Mix the conditional second moments and subtract the square of the unconditional mean.
E[X2]=0.40(8)+0.60(50)=33.2
Var(X)=33.2−(3.8)2=18.76
Answer
Answer
The unconditional completion-time variance is 18.76 square hours.
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