This Exam P sample reference tests Sums of Independent Random Variables. This problem asks for the standard deviation of an independent sum. Squaring the four component standard deviations and adding gives variance 30, so the total standard deviation is √(30)=5.4772 and choice B.
How to solve this Sums of Independent Random Variables question
Setup
Setup
Let S be the aggregate and denote the four independent components by X1 through X4.
S=X1+X2+X3+X4
Model
Model
Independence makes all pairwise covariance terms zero, so add component variances rather than component standard deviations.
Var(S)=i=1∑4Var(Xi)
Var(S)=12+22+32+42
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the variance sum and take its square root.
Var(S)=1+4+9+16=30
SD(S)=30=5.4772255751
Answer
Answer
The total standard deviation rounds to 5.5.
5.5(B)
Test the method on unseen problems
Probability Multivariate & Risk Models Practice Workbook
30 original multivariate random variables problems with complete solutions and wrong-choice analysis. Written for Exam P, not copied from the SOA set. One-time $19 PDF.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value (1+2+3+4)/4=2.5 averages the component standard deviations; an aggregate is not an average of its components.
CThe value (1²+2²+3²+4²)/4=7.5 averages the four variances and also omits the final square root.
DThe value 1+2+3+4=10 adds standard deviations directly. Independence supports addition of the squared standard deviations.
EA standard deviation of 12.5 would imply variance 156.25, which is incompatible with the independently summed variance 30.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: uncertainty in a corrected sensor reading
Three independent centered calibration errors U, V, and W have standard deviations 1.5, 2, and 4 units. A corrected reading has error R=2U-V+0.5W. Calculate the standard deviation of R.
A 3.000
B 4.123
C 7.000
D 17.000
E 49.000
Answer and calculation
Variance scales with the square of each coefficient. Independence gives Var(R)=4(1.5²)+2²+0.5²(4²)=17, so SD(R)=√(17)=4.123 and choice B.
Setup
Setup
Write the variance rule for the stated linear combination of independent errors.
R=2U−V+0.5W
Var(R)=22Var(U)+(−1)2Var(V)+(0.5)2Var(W)
Model
Model
Convert the three supplied standard deviations to variances before applying the squared coefficients.
Var(U)=1.52,Var(V)=22,Var(W)=42
Compute
Compute
Add the three weighted variance contributions, then return to standard-deviation units.
Var(R)=4(2.25)+4+0.25(16)=17
SD(R)=17=4.1231056256
Answer
Answer
The corrected reading has standard deviation approximately 4.123 units.