This Exam P sample reference tests Inclusion–Exclusion. Adding the two union probabilities yields the identity 1+P(A), so P(A)=0.7+0.9-1=0.6, choice D.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 0.2 is the difference 0.9-0.7. Subtracting the two unions does not isolate A because both expressions already contain A.
BThe value 0.3 is 1-0.7, the complement of the first supplied union, not Pr(A).
CThe value 0.4 is the complement of the correct Pr(A)=0.6 and answers for A complement instead.
EThe value 0.8 is the average of 0.7 and 0.9. Averaging the two union probabilities has no probability identity that yields Pr(A).
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: assemble a marginal from two disjoint cells
A validation event A is split by whether a separate flag B is present. The recorded probabilities are P(A and B)=0.12 and P(A and not B)=0.28. Find P(A).
A 0.12
B 0.16
C 0.28
D 0.40
E 0.72
Variant answer in brief
The two listed cells are disjoint and exhaust event A, so their sum is 0.40, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Partition event A into the disjoint cells where B occurs and where B does not occur.
A=(A∩B)∪˙(A∩Bc)
Model
Model
Because the two cells are disjoint and exhaust A, add their probabilities to recover the marginal probability of A.
Pr(A)=Pr(A∩B)+Pr(A∩Bc)
Compute
Compute
Adding the two recorded cell probabilities gives 0.12+0.28=0.40.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.