This Exam P sample reference tests Independence. For the exponential amount, E[X]=8 and E[X²]=128. Independence and the Bernoulli indicator give E[Y]=0.45(8)=3.6 and E[Y²]=0.45(128)=57.6, hence Var(Y)=44.64 and choice E.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThe value 12.96 is E[Y]²=(3.6)². It is the term subtracted from the second moment, not the variance by itself.
BThe value 15.84 is Var(E[Y|Z])=Var(8Z)=64(0.45)(0.55). It omits the variability of the exponential amount when payment occurs.
CThe value 28.80 is E[Var(Y|Z)]=0.45(64). It is only the within-indicator component in the law of total variance.
DThe value 35.20 weights the exponential variance by the no-payment probability, 0.55(64), instead of the payment probability and also omits the between-state component.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: correlation created by a processing gate
A job has a positive workload X with mean 10 and variance 25. Independently, a processing gate opens with probability 0.40; let Z be its zero-one indicator. The recorded workload is Y=ZX, so a closed gate records zero. Calculate the correlation between Z and Y.
A 0.4000
B 0.5367
C 0.6508
D 0.6928
E 0.8402
Variant answer in brief
The gate gives Var(Z)=0.24, while E[Y]=4 and Var(Y)=34. Since ZY=Y, Cov(Z,Y)=4-0.40(4)=2.4, so Corr(Z,Y)=2.4/√(0.24 × 34)=0.8402, choice E.
Setup
Setup
Use the stated workload moments and the independent Bernoulli gate.
E[X]=10,Var(X)=25,Pr(Z=1)=0.40
Y=ZX
Model
Model
Find the recorded workload variance from its first two moments.
E[X2]=25+102=125
E[Y]=0.40(10)=4
E[Y2]=0.40(125)=50
Var(Y)=50−42=34
Compute
Compute
Because a zero-one indicator satisfies ZY=Z squared times X=Y, the cross moment is immediate.
Var(Z)=0.40(0.60)=0.24
Cov(Z,Y)=E[ZY]−E[Z]E[Y]=4−(0.40)(4)=2.4
Corr(Z,Y)=(0.24)(34)2.4=0.8401681
Answer
Answer
The gate and the recorded workload have correlation about 0.8402.
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