This Exam P sample reference tests Independence. On one trial the three possible totals have probabilities 1/9, 4/9, and 4/9. The two independent totals agree with probability 33/81, so they differ with probability 48/81 = 16/27 and choice C.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AThis undercounts the ordered pairs of unequal totals; all six off-diagonal pairs must be included.
BThis also omits some off-diagonal probability mass and does not complement the exact match probability 33/81.
DThis is 2/3, the answer obtained by incorrectly treating the three possible totals as equally likely.
EThis overstates the result by assigning too little probability to a repeated total, especially the two totals that each occur with probability 4/9.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: diagnostic status changes
A diagnostic run independently reports Low, Medium, or High status with probabilities 0.20, 0.30, and 0.50. Two runs are made under unchanged conditions. Calculate the probability that the reported status differs between the two runs.
A 0.38
B 0.50
C 0.58
D 0.62
E 0.70
Variant answer in brief
The two statuses match with probability 0.20² + 0.30² + 0.50² = 0.38. The complement is 0.62, so choice D.
Setup
Setup
List the three single-run probabilities.
pL=0.20,pM=0.30,pH=0.50
Model
Model
Independence makes the probability of matching in a category the square of that category probability.
Pr(same)=pL2+pM2+pH2
Compute
Compute
Calculate the matching probability and take its complement.
Pr(same)=0.202+0.302+0.502=0.38
Pr(different)=1−0.38=0.62
Answer
Answer
The two diagnostic statuses differ with probability 0.62.
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