Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: comparing two calibration teams
Two calibration teams each collect eight independent readings. Every reading is normally distributed with mean 50 and standard deviation 6, and the teams' readings are mutually independent. Calculate the probability that Team A's sample mean exceeds Team B's sample mean by more than 3.
- A
0.0786 - B
0.1587 - C
0.2398 - D
0.5000 - E
0.8413
Answer and calculation
The difference of the independent sample means is normal with mean zero and variance 36/8+36/8=9. The threshold is one standard deviation above zero, so the upper tail is 0.1587 and choice B is correct.
Setup
Setup
Let D be the difference between the two independent sample means.
D=XA−XB E[D]=50−50=0 Model
Model
Independence makes the two sample-mean variances additive in the difference.
Var(D)=862+862=9 D∼N(0,32) Compute
Compute
Standardize the requested three-unit difference.
Pr(D>3)=Pr(Z>33−0) Pr(D>3)=Pr(Z>1)=0.1586552539 Answer
Answer
The probability is approximately 0.1587.
0.1587(B)