Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: expected flag score under a random crew size
An inspection station assigns one inspector with probability 0.40 and three inspectors with probability 0.60. Conditional on the assigned crew size X, each inspector independently raises a flag with probability 0.50; Y is the total number of flags. The station records the score S=Y/(X+1). Calculate E[S].
- A
0.2500 - B
0.3125 - C
0.3250 - D
0.3750 - E
0.5000
Answer and calculation
Given X=x, the binomial flag count has mean 0.5x, so E[S|X=x]=0.5x/(x+1). The one- and three-inspector conditional scores are 0.25 and 0.375; weighting them by 0.40 and 0.60 gives 0.325, choice C.
Setup
Setup
Condition on the assigned crew size. The flag count is binomial within each crew.
Y∣X=x∼Binomial(x,0.50) E[Y∣X=x]=0.50x Model
Model
For a fixed crew size, the score denominator is constant, so conditional expectation may be applied to the numerator.
E[S∣X=x]=x+1E[Y∣X=x]=x+10.50x E[S∣X=1]=0.25,E[S∣X=3]=0.375 Compute
Compute
Average the two conditional scores using the crew-size probabilities.
E[S]=0.40(0.25)+0.60(0.375)=0.325 Answer
Answer
The expected station score is 0.3250.
0.3250(C)