This Exam P sample reference tests Joint Distributions. Summing the joint probabilities over the other coordinate gives marginal masses 1/6, 2/6, and 3/6 at 0, 1, and 2. The resulting moments are E[X]=4/3 and E[X²]=7/3, so Var(X)=5/9=0.5556 and choice A is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
BRounding 4/3 to 1.3 before squaring and 7/3 to 2.33 gives 2.33-1.3²=0.64. Keeping the exact fractions avoids this premature-rounding error.
CThe symmetric but incorrect marginal masses (3/8,2/8,3/8) at 0, 1, and 2 have variance 0.75. The actual column sums are (1/6,2/6,3/6), not symmetric.
DThe symmetric but incorrect marginal masses (2/5,1/5,2/5) have variance 0.80. They underweight the center and ignore the required joint-cell sums in the ratio 1:2:3.
EThe value 0.89 is approximately 8/9, which can arise from subtracting 4/3 from 20/9 instead of applying E[X²]-(E[X])². Variance subtracts the squared mean.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: marginal repair count from operating modes
A repair desk operates in Mode A with probability 1/3 and Mode B with probability 2/3. In Mode A, the number N of follow-up visits is 0 or 1 with equal probability. In Mode B, N is 1 with probability 3/4 and 3 with probability 1/4. Calculate Var(N).
A 1/6
B 7/6
C 13/6
D 29/36
E 49/36
Variant answer in brief
Mixing over the two operating modes gives P(N=0)=1/6, P(N=1)=2/3, and P(N=3)=1/6. Hence E[N]=7/6, E[N²]=13/6, and Var(N)=29/36, which is choice D.
Setup
Setup
Combine each conditional outcome probability with the probability of its operating mode.
Pr(N=0)=31(21)=61
Pr(N=1)=31(21)+32(43)=32
Pr(N=3)=32(41)=61
Model
Model
Use the resulting marginal distribution to form the first two moments.
E[N]=0(61)+1(32)+3(61)
E[N2]=1(32)+9(61)
Compute
Compute
Evaluate the moments and subtract the squared mean.
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