Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: marginal repair count from operating modes
A repair desk operates in Mode A with probability 1/3 and Mode B with probability 2/3. In Mode A, the number N of follow-up visits is 0 or 1 with equal probability. In Mode B, N is 1 with probability 3/4 and 3 with probability 1/4. Calculate Var(N).
- A
1/6 - B
7/6 - C
13/6 - D
29/36 - E
49/36
Answer and calculation
Mixing over the two operating modes gives P(N=0)=1/6, P(N=1)=2/3, and P(N=3)=1/6. Hence E[N]=7/6, E[N²]=13/6, and Var(N)=29/36, which is choice D.
Setup
Setup
Combine each conditional outcome probability with the probability of its operating mode.
Pr(N=0)=31(21)=61 Pr(N=1)=31(21)+32(43)=32 Pr(N=3)=32(41)=61 Model
Model
Use the resulting marginal distribution to form the first two moments.
E[N]=0(61)+1(32)+3(61) E[N2]=1(32)+9(61) Compute
Compute
Evaluate the moments and subtract the squared mean.
E[N]=67,E[N2]=613 Var(N)=613−(67)2=3629 Answer
Answer
The marginal repair-count variance is 29/36.
3629(D)