This Exam P sample reference tests Hypergeometric Sampling. Exactly one low-risk worker means selecting one from each risk class. There are 20(5)=100 favorable pairs among C(25,2)=300, giving 1/3, choice D.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
CThe value 0.320 is the with-replacement probability of drawing one worker from each class in two independent draws. It ignores depletion after the first selection.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: one advanced worker in a three-person team
A plant has 18 standard workers and 7 advanced workers. Three workers are selected uniformly without replacement. Find the probability that exactly one selected worker is advanced.
A 0.2800
B 0.3652
C 0.4200
D 0.4657
E 0.5600
Variant answer in brief
There are C(7,1)C(18,2)=1071 favorable teams among C(25,3)=2300 total teams, giving 0.46565, choice D.
Setup
Setup
Every three-worker team is equally likely under sampling without replacement.
Nall=(325)=2300
Model
Model
A favorable team contains one of the seven advanced workers and two of the 18 standard workers.
Nfav=(17)(218)=1071
Compute
Compute
There are 1,071 favorable teams among 2,300 total teams, giving approximately 0.465652.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.