This Exam FM sample reference tests Spot and Forward Rates. Equating the five-year spot accumulation to the four-year spot accumulation followed by the fifth-year forward factor gives 11.52%, which corresponds to choice E.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
AChoice A (9.0%) does not satisfy the no-arbitrage equality between direct five-year and rolled four-plus-one-year accumulation; no distinct standard one-step error is identifiable.
BChoice B (9.5%) does not satisfy the no-arbitrage equality between direct five-year and rolled four-plus-one-year accumulation; no distinct standard one-step error is identifiable.
CChoice C (10.0%) does not satisfy the no-arbitrage equality between direct five-year and rolled four-plus-one-year accumulation; no distinct standard one-step error is identifiable.
DChoice D (10.5%) does not satisfy the no-arbitrage equality between direct five-year and rolled four-plus-one-year accumulation; no distinct standard one-step error is identifiable.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: four-year spot rate reconstructed from a final-year forward rate
The three-year annual effective spot rate is 4%. The one-year forward rate applying only during year 4 is 6%. Under no arbitrage, calculate the four-year annual effective spot rate.
A 4.50%
B 4.72%
C 4.95%
D 5.17%
E 5.40%
Variant answer in brief
The four-year accumulation factor is the three-year spot factor multiplied by 1.06. Taking its fourth root gives a four-year spot rate of 4.50%, choice A.
Setup
Setup
Build the four-year accumulation by rolling the three-year spot investment through the known fourth-year forward period.
(1+s4)4=(1.04)3(1.06)
Model
Model
Take the fourth root to convert the total four-year factor to an annual effective spot rate.
s4=[(1.04)3(1.06)]1/4−1
Compute
Compute
The annualized four-year spot rate is 4.4964%.
s4=0.04496434
Answer
Answer
The four-year spot rate is 4.50%, selecting choice A.
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