This Exam P sample reference tests Set Probability. This is a three-set incidence calculation under an exactly-two-or-zero participation rule. Writing the three pair-only proportions as unknowns turns the supplied marginal rates into a linear system; the life-and-retirement cell is 0.125, so choice A is correct.
These notes identify the calculation error associated with each wrong letter when that error is reproducible.
BThe value 25.0% is 2z, the result before dividing the isolated equation by two.
CThe value 37.5% repeats the life-plan marginal x+z. It includes employees paired with health as well as those paired with retirement.
DThe value 50.0% repeats the retirement-plan marginal y+z rather than retaining only its overlap with life.
EThe value 62.5% is the health-plan marginal x+y, which does not answer the requested life-and-retirement overlap.
Original practice · fully worked
Original variant: batches receiving exactly two review tags
A production batch may receive any of three review tags: thermal, vibration, and alignment. No batch receives all three tags. Historical rates are 0.55 for thermal, 0.50 for vibration, and 0.45 for alignment, while 0.90 of batches receive at least one tag. Calculate the probability that a batch receives exactly two tags.
A 0.10
B 0.50
C 0.60
D 0.90
E 1.50
Variant answer in brief
Let N count tags on a batch. Its mean is the sum of the three marginal rates, 1.50; because N can only be zero, one, or two, the tail-sum identity gives 1.50=P(N at least 1)+P(N at least 2)=0.90+P(N=2). Hence the answer is 0.60, choice C.
Setup
Setup
Let N be the number of tags attached to one batch and add the three indicator means.
N=IT+IV+IA
E[N]=0.55+0.50+0.45=1.50
Model
Model
The prohibition on all three tags makes two the largest possible count. Apply the tail-sum identity for a bounded nonnegative integer variable.
E[N]=Pr(N≥1)+Pr(N≥2)
Compute
Compute
Insert the probability of at least one tag and isolate the probability of two tags.
1.50=0.90+Pr(N≥2)
Pr(N=2)=Pr(N≥2)=0.60
Answer
Answer
A batch receives exactly two tags with probability 0.60.
The 3108-page Probability Proof Manual reorganizes 718 verified Exam P solutions by syllabus skill and adds formula proofs, error patterns, and original worked practice.